NSNO Enrollment Landscape Analysis

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

Slowing population growth and birth rates change the city’s demographics  

Immediately after Hurricane Katrina, our city’s population had shrunk to less than half of what it had been before the storm. In the years that followed, however, our population grew swiftly, and continued to rise until five years ago, when it stopped growing. Today, our city still has a quarter (25%) fewer people than it did before Hurricane Katrina.

Not only do we have fewer people overall, but the population has a smaller proportion of children. In 2000, around one-third of our city’s households included children under 18 years old. By 2022, only 20% of New Orleans households included children under age 18. Meanwhile, the number of babies born in Orleans Parish has also been steadily declining. We have seen a 20% drop since six years; around 1,000 fewer babies were born in New Orleans in 2022 than in 2014.

A changing enrollment landscape 

Within just a few years, the decrease in birth rate alone means there are fewer students here to enroll in our city’s kindergarten classrooms and enter our public schools. Our kindergarten class in 2023-24 was the smallest since 2011-12 and was 20% smaller than it was in 2014, representing a difference of about 800 students; this number represents more than the entire student body of an average-sized school. Year by year, as these smaller classes move through grade levels, our public school enrollment will decrease further.

What’s next?

Given these trends, we expect enrollment to either be roughly flat over the next few years by returning to pre-pandemic levels, or continue to decline at similar levels each year.

Even without future enrollment declines, our system’s current under-enrollment is already creating challenges for our schools. This year, for instance, only 88% of open “spots” in our open enrollment public schools across the city were filled. Because our schools are funded on a “per pupil” basis – a set amount of dollars for each student the school enrolls – open spots mean schools will need to make tough decisions about limited resources across classrooms while managing ongoing fixed, or unchangeable costs, like facility maintenance, utilities, and some staffing and materials.

As a result of these pressures, three New Orleans public schools chose to close voluntarily close at the end of the 2022-223 school year. These closures, plus one additional school closures due to low academic performance, will mean that there are fewer open spots. However, at the same time, some schools are continuing to add grades to their schools or attempting to increase the number of students they serve in existing grades.

This is a difficult problem, and there are many decisions NOLA-PS and charter schools must make to address it.

At NSNO, we will continue to support the district and our schools in facing this challenge. Through collaboration, we can find a way to ensure all children can access a high-quality education, even as enrollment declines. As our student population shifts, our commitment to students will not change.